A. Harikumar
Many raised eyebrows when Nair Service Society (NSS) leader G. Sukumaran Nair invited Congress leader Shashi Tharoor MP to inaugurate Mannam Jayanthi meet, a few months ago. But, more surprises were in store for them. On January 2, at the meeting, Mr. Nair shocked them when he recanted his previous words that Tharoor is "a Delhi Nair". Mr. Sukumaran Nair, known for his no nonsense approach had never swallowed his words, since before becoming the NSS general secretary.
Mr. Nair didn't stop there. The all powerful NSS general secretary, who once publicly censured even the top leaders of the Congress in Kerala including the former chief minister Oommen Chandy and the leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala went on to shower praises on Tharoor. “Tharoor is the son of Kerala and a Global citizen. There is no leader worthier than him to inaugurate this august function,” Mr. Nair said. A host of Congress leaders who listened to the speech, including Mr. Chennithala, didn’t respond. Perhaps, they were petrified at their fall from the grace and the newfound acceptance for Mr. Tharoor at Perunna.
Standing tall at the NSS meet, Tharoor seemed to enjoy the fortuitous turn of events. But despite being gracious, Tharoor didn’t forget to make innuendos at his rivals in the party. Quoting NSS founder Mannath Padmanabhan Tharoor said, “Nairs don’t tolerate each other,” which could be interpreted as his response to the jibes against him by his colleagues Ramesh Chennithala, KC Venugopal and V D Satheeshan together.
Marriage of convenience
What could be the possible factors that induced Mr. Nair, to go out of his way to bring a global citizen Tharoor to NSS headquarters at Perunna, when Tharoor is not known to be willing to play second fiddle to anyone? It is highly unlikely that Mr. Tharoor will transform to an acolyte of Mr Nair, or the latter known for his supercilious attitude towards politicians who seek his favours, change his outlook. However, a marriage of convenience suits both of them at the moment, though there is not much love lost between them.
With the CPM led LDF coming to power for a second time the NSS leadership has lost its clout completely in the state administration for the time. Almost a year ago Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan, kept Mr. Nair waiting for hours when the latter went to meet him at Kottayam, a snubbing Mr Nair is unlikely to forget. NSS wants Pinarayi out, but has realised that the present leadership of Congress in Kerala doesn’t have the balls to stand up to Pinarayi. Besides, he has an axe to grind with Kerala Opposition leader V D Satheeshan who protested against caste leaders trying to browbeat the Congress.
Ramesh Chennithala, once the blue eyed boy of Mr Nair is no more the apple of his eye. K.C Venugopal who has his well-wishers in the NSS leadership is not much loved by Mr. Nair, for reasons best known to him. All the aforesaid Nair leaders are rivals of Tharoor in Congress. So, it makes sense for Nair and Tharoor to ally. This is no secret. Even political novices can conclude this. But is there something more?
Why is Nair adamantly rejecting BJP’s overtures despite the Union Government continuously sending positive signals like rewarding people like P. S Sreedharan Pillai and CV Ananda Bose with governor posts? Does Tharoor really think that a public assertion of Nair identity and overt support of Mr. Nair could ensure his becoming Kerala CM?
On the face of his decisions and actions till now, it is explicit that Mr. Nair is uneasy in the company of the BJP, and at his age habits are hard to change. But he is in no way anti-Hindu which was evident when NSS donated for the Ram Temple construction, and supported it publicly. However, the eco system in which Mr. Nair thrives is pro Congress. He never moves out of this eco system and doesn’t even travel outside Changanassery. He never misses the NSS office. In the NSS hierarchy, there is little decentralisation of power and the approach is top down. So Mr. Nair embodies the NSS.
NSS leadership is unlikely to be comfortable interacting with a disciplined cadre organisation like the RSS, which they fear would swallow them ultimately. Then what about the BJP? The Kerala BJP leadership lacks influential leaders with thel stature and conviction to win over Mr. Nair. The central leadership hasn’t sent any top national leaders as emissary who can win the trust of Mr. Nair. To sum up, both are to be blamed for the mistrust. The result is Mr. Nair prefers interacting with Congress leaders known to him for decades. But however hard Mr. Nair might try, Mr. Nair won’t be able to dislodge Mr. Pinarayi. Though the political optics of Kerala at present seems to be against Pinarayi, assembly polls to be held in 2026 is a long way off.
Will Tharoor’s strategy pay off?
After getting an effusive welcome at Muslim League supremo Panakkad Thangal’s home , the NSS headquarters and an invitation from Maramon convention in hand Tharoor is in a full swing now. But the future is unlikely to be unicorns and rainbows. In all likelihood Mr. Tharoor will have a rollercoaster ride, full of ups and downs. The evolving social and economic realities in Kerala will make it impossible to jerry-rig a coalition involving the NSS, the Muslim League and Christian Churches.
The demographic changes in Kerala have already made Muslims the single largest community which constitute 28 percent of the state’s population. Muslims are now the richest community in Kerala which accounts for more than 55 percent of the remittance. It’s natural for the economically and demographically most powerful group to demand leadership, and they will certainly do it. NSS and Churches won’t accept it. So the present camaraderie isn't a throwback to the days of Vimochana Samaram of 1959-60 when all the three united to fight communists and dislodged the EMS ministry. That won’t repeat.
The Muslim league has been incrementally upping the pressure on the Congress within the UDF since the 2001 Antony government. By the time of Oommen Chandy government, they have gained five ministers in the ministry, something unthinkable once. The number of Congress MLAs and Muslim League MLAs in assembly is now almost the same. Muslim League is now no more averse to CPM. Communism is dead, and the present left is actually the Islamo-Left, which depends on radical islamist groups for their survival.
The newfound love of the Muslim League for Mr. Tharoor is their fear of Hindutva. With the fear of BJP looming over their head, the Muslim League will try to woo anyone, who they think can stem a possible Hindutva tide. So it’s not love for Tharoor that made the Muslim League extend a hand of friendship, it’s their own political exigencies,, despite Tharoor publicly asserting his upper caste credentials.
If the Congress fails again in the 2025 Lok sabha polls, and BJP returns to power, the power hungry Congress leaders in Kerala would get paranoid and resort to all types of brinkmanship. Since the algorithm of Kerala politics is bound to change in such a situation, it’s better not to read too much into the present developments. The significance of present developments is they will help Tharoor build his brand and extend its footprint. He can decide on the party that could help him fufil his ambitions in future. He is likely to wait and watch till then. If the rickety Indira Bhavan (Congress headquarters) collapses, Tharoor has other options. Perhaps, he is preparing the ground.
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