How Did Modi's Friendly Relations With Media Turn Sour? #narendramodi, #...

Narendra Modi had warm relations with India's mainstream media when he was organisation secretary of the BJP in late 1990s. But it turned sour after he became the chief minister of Gujarat, esp after the Gujarat riots. Even as the Prime Minister, he keeps media at a hand's distance. What are the factors that created a rift between Narendra Modi and Media? Listen

Impact Of Padmaja's Exit From Congress and Joining BJP in Kerala Politics

Padmaja Venugopal who resigned from the Congress and joined the BJP may not be able to bring a large number of supporters to her new party. But she could spark debates in Kerala that could reverberate in Kerala; esp. when Muslim League is holding Congress state leadership to ransom. If she recounts how the Muslim League pulled the rug from under Karunakaran's legs it could rub salt into the wounds of Karunakaran's hindu supporters and may cause polarisation. It could also destroy morale of Congress

Who Will Win Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha Seat?

Thiruvananthapuram is the only Lok Sabha constituency in Kerala where the prime contestants are the Congress and the BJP. Shashi Tharoor has won from Thiruvananthapuram thrice consecutively. The main opponent of Tharoor in the last two polls was BJP. This time also it is unlikely to change. The LDF has forced a retired politician Panniyan Ravindran to revoke his decision and contest thinking that he is a panacea for the weaknesses of LDF. But that is unlikely to work.

Meanwhile BJP has nominated Rajeev Chandrasekhar as their candidate. Rajeev's profile matches Tharoor in all aspeccts. So the competition will be tough. Rajeev has got deep pockets too. Who has the edge now? Listen to the video to know the answer. Please subscribe the video.

Who will win Thrissur Lok Sabha Seat?

Who will win Thrissur Lok Sabha Seat? 

 The candidate line up of Thrissur Lok Sabha seat is now almost clear. Sitting MP TN Prathapan is likely to be the UDF candidate. Sures Gopi is expected to be the NDA candidate. VS Sunil Kumar ise th LDF candidate. This is a primary analysis of Thrissur. It seems a real three cornered contest is on the cards and this is one seat where the BJP has a real chance. But there are some factors that could prevent it too.

Shashi Tharoor at Mannam Jayanthi of NSS: Answering the WHYs and WHATs

A. Harikumar

Many raised eyebrows when Nair Service Society (NSS) leader G. Sukumaran Nair invited Congress leader Shashi Tharoor MP to inaugurate Mannam Jayanthi meet, a few months ago. But, more surprises were in store for them. On January 2, at the meeting, Mr. Nair shocked them when he recanted his previous words that Tharoor is "a Delhi Nair". Mr. Sukumaran Nair, known for his no nonsense approach had never swallowed his words, since before becoming the NSS general secretary.

Mr. Nair didn't stop there. The all powerful NSS general secretary, who once publicly censured even the top leaders of the Congress in Kerala including the former chief minister Oommen Chandy and the leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala went on to shower praises on Tharoor. “Tharoor is the son of Kerala and a Global citizen. There is no leader worthier than him  to inaugurate this august function,” Mr. Nair said. A host of Congress leaders who listened to the speech, including Mr. Chennithala, didn’t respond. Perhaps, they were petrified at their fall from the grace and the newfound acceptance for Mr. Tharoor at Perunna. 

Standing tall at the NSS meet, Tharoor seemed to enjoy the fortuitous turn of events. But despite being gracious, Tharoor didn’t forget to make innuendos at his rivals in the party. Quoting NSS founder Mannath Padmanabhan Tharoor said, “Nairs don’t tolerate each other,” which could be interpreted as his response to the jibes against him by his colleagues Ramesh Chennithala, KC Venugopal and V D Satheeshan together.  

Marriage of convenience 

What could be the possible factors that induced Mr. Nair, to go out of his way to bring a global citizen Tharoor to NSS headquarters at Perunna, when Tharoor is not known to be willing to play second fiddle to anyone? It is highly unlikely that Mr. Tharoor will transform to an acolyte of Mr Nair, or the latter known for his supercilious attitude towards politicians who seek his favours, change his outlook. However, a marriage of convenience suits both of them at the moment, though there is not much love lost between them.

With the CPM led LDF coming to power for a second time the NSS leadership has lost its clout completely in the state administration for the time. Almost a year ago Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan, kept Mr. Nair waiting for hours when the latter went to meet him at Kottayam, a snubbing Mr Nair is unlikely to forget.  NSS wants Pinarayi out, but has realised that the present leadership of Congress in Kerala doesn’t have the balls to stand up to Pinarayi. Besides, he has an axe to grind with Kerala Opposition leader V D Satheeshan who protested against caste leaders trying to browbeat the Congress. 

Ramesh Chennithala, once the blue eyed boy of Mr Nair is no more the apple of his eye. K.C Venugopal who has his well-wishers in the NSS leadership is not much loved by Mr. Nair, for reasons best known to him. All the aforesaid Nair leaders are rivals of Tharoor in Congress. So, it makes sense for Nair and Tharoor to ally. This is no secret. Even political novices can conclude this. But is there something more? 

Why is Nair adamantly rejecting BJP’s overtures despite the Union Government continuously sending positive signals like rewarding people like P. S Sreedharan Pillai and CV Ananda Bose with governor posts? Does Tharoor really think that a public assertion of Nair identity and overt support of Mr. Nair could ensure his becoming Kerala CM? 

On the face of his decisions and actions till now, it is explicit that Mr. Nair is uneasy in the company of the BJP, and at his age habits are hard to change. But he is in no way anti-Hindu which was evident when NSS donated for the Ram Temple construction, and supported it publicly. However, the eco system in which Mr. Nair thrives is pro Congress. He never moves out of this eco system and doesn’t even travel outside Changanassery. He never misses the NSS office. In the NSS hierarchy, there is little decentralisation of power and the approach is top down. So Mr. Nair embodies the NSS.

NSS leadership  is unlikely to be comfortable interacting with a disciplined cadre organisation like the RSS, which they fear would swallow them ultimately. Then what about the BJP? The Kerala BJP leadership lacks influential leaders with thel stature and conviction to win over Mr. Nair. The central leadership hasn’t sent any top national leaders as emissary who can win the trust of Mr. Nair. To sum up, both are to be blamed for the mistrust. The result is Mr. Nair prefers interacting with Congress leaders known to him for decades. But however hard Mr. Nair might try, Mr. Nair won’t be able to dislodge Mr. Pinarayi.  Though the political optics of Kerala at present seems to be against Pinarayi, assembly polls to be held in 2026 is a long way off. 

Will Tharoor’s strategy pay off?

After getting an effusive welcome at Muslim League supremo Panakkad Thangal’s home , the NSS headquarters and an invitation from Maramon convention in hand Tharoor is in a full swing now. But the future is unlikely to be unicorns and rainbows. In all likelihood Mr. Tharoor will have a rollercoaster ride, full of ups and downs. The evolving social and economic realities in Kerala will make it impossible to jerry-rig a coalition involving the NSS, the Muslim League and Christian Churches. 

The  demographic changes in Kerala have already made Muslims the single largest community which constitute 28 percent of the state’s population. Muslims are now the richest community in Kerala which accounts for more than 55 percent of the remittance. It’s natural for the economically and demographically most powerful group to demand leadership, and they will certainly do it. NSS and Churches won’t accept it. So the present camaraderie isn't a throwback to the days of Vimochana Samaram of 1959-60 when all the three united to fight communists and dislodged the EMS ministry. That won’t repeat. 

The Muslim league has been incrementally upping the pressure on the Congress within the UDF since the 2001 Antony government. By the time of Oommen Chandy government, they have gained five ministers in the ministry, something unthinkable once. The number of Congress MLAs and Muslim League MLAs in assembly is now almost the same. Muslim League is now no more averse to CPM. Communism is dead, and the present left is actually the Islamo-Left, which depends on radical islamist groups for their survival.

The newfound love of the Muslim League for Mr. Tharoor is their fear of Hindutva. With the fear of BJP looming over their head, the Muslim League will try to woo anyone, who they think can stem a possible Hindutva tide. So it’s not love for Tharoor that made the Muslim League extend a hand of friendship, it’s their own political exigencies,, despite Tharoor publicly asserting his upper caste credentials.

If the Congress fails again in the 2025 Lok sabha polls, and BJP returns to power, the power hungry Congress leaders in Kerala would get paranoid and resort to all types of brinkmanship. Since the algorithm of Kerala politics is bound to change in such a situation, it’s better not to read too much into the present developments. The significance of present developments is they will help Tharoor build his brand and extend its footprint. He can decide on the party that could help him fufil his ambitions in future. He is likely to wait and watch till then. If the rickety Indira Bhavan (Congress headquarters) collapses, Tharoor has other options. Perhaps, he is preparing the ground.

BJP and Kerala 2

Why Congress leaders in Kerala refuse to join the BJP even as the congress is crumbling in Kerala also like elsewhere in the country? Is it Hindutva ideology or some thing else. It's definitely not Hindutva as leaders like Kerala Gandhi K Kelappan and Sarvodaya leader MP Manmadhan have joined hands with the RSS in the past . Listen to the video

One Hundred Days of Modi Government; India Modyfied or unmodified

It is not just coincidental that leading English media in India have published reviews on the performance of BJP lead NDA government titled as 100 days of Modi government rather than 100 days of NDA govt or 100 days of BJP government. Such is the influence of Narendra Damodardas Modi Prime Minister of the largest democracy in the world at present, who is believed to have brought BJP into power almost single handedly. He wields enormous powers now and it is right to term NDA govt as Modi government. But along with power comes responsibility too. The expectations of the public who decisively voted him to power are also very high.

                                                                                                               

As a general Modi forced his enemies flee from the battlefield and captured the post of Prime Minister of India emerging as the most powerful leader India has seen in the recent times after Indira Gandhi. He has a clear majority in India’s lower house which will make decision making his own prerogative. That also means he won’t be able to blame allies for his government’s failures.

Right from the beginning, after assuming power, Modi has been demanding time before assessing him. It is true that any government in India needs time to set things right, especially after the chaos which marked the rule of former UPA government. But it is unlikely that the public are such magnanimous.  They are fed up with the lame excuses of politicians and even a fair request is unlikely to be entertained.

In this situation it is clear. 100 days are enough for the preliminary review of Modi government’s performance. Let us check the government’s performance on different fronts like 1. Political Front 2.Administration 3. External Relations. It is also important to review whether parameters used by his opponents to review Modi have changed after he became PM and its impact.

 Modi’s persona now and then

Perhaps Narendra Modi, as Gujarat chief minister was a politician who was attacked the most in India ever. Modi was made a synonym of Hindutva by his opponents who relentlessly and unethically attacked him. It was this attack that made him familiar to crores of Hindus across India from Kerala to Kashmir who identified themselves with him. This won him their sympathy and perhaps they felt Modi’s opponents where in fact attacking them and their values. Opponents of Modi made him an icon of Hindu resistance unknowingly and result is Hindus rallied behind him.

Now after Modi became Prime Minister, he is no more the subject of attack of anti-Hindu groups who have now turned their focus to new groups and people. So now Modi will be judged as an administrator not a leader of Hindutva groups. This means Modi will have to perform to win admiration.

Political Front

The by-elections to assembly seats in different states across the country was the first political test faced by BJP after it came to power. Unfortunately Narendra Modi has failed to deliver BJP any success this time. From Uttarkhand, Bihar and Punjab in the north to Karnataka in the south, BJP’s performance is at the best average which means it has not been able to sustain the advantage it gained during Lok Sabha elections held only a few months ago.

Even after its worst ever defeat the Congress party seems to be confident and Congress which is known for its inner party fights is relatively united now. The party leadership communicates well, still hit media headlines and has influence in the top bureaucracy at the centre. This is really amazing. This means BJP has failed to attack Congress politically after election and disperse its cadres away from Sonia-Rahul leadership. Coordination of state units of BJP with the union government is poor and there is not strategy to provide advantage to state units using the influence and decisions of union government.

The political, religious, media, business, social and bureaucratic coteries which support Congress are still adamantly and successfully opposing BJP and Hindu groups which means Modi has been unable to take meaningful steps to tame them.

Administration

Going by media reports it seems Narendra Modi has succeeded in disciplining government offices and lower bureaucracy to a great extent. They arrive at office on time and take decisions quickly. Offices and premises are now cleaner. It also seems bribery has not increased. These are good steps and evoke an image of Corporate Culture.

But the real question is have the people begun to feel the change? Are the prices falling or at least stable. Are the charges for government services stable. Or will an improvement in quality of service is felt when charges are hiked.? For eg hike in price of petroleum products or railway fares or hike in toll by National Highway authority. 

People don’t bother about nuances in policy changes, they judge by its impact on their lives. Sadly BJP government has not been able to do much on this.

It seems the influence of Congress on top bureaucracy and some business and media houses still continue and they will upset BJP’s applecart.

Communication or information dissemination

The success of a government or political party depends not only on the sincerity of their acts but also on their ability to convince the public. Whatever social media enthusiasts say, Mainsteam Media continues to play a key role in building public opinion in India. Of course the new media including social media platforms are now a significant force.

BJP’s use of mainstream media continues to be weak and good acts of the government are often unreported or under reported. It seems government does not have a strategy to influence media positively. Overcautious ministers distance themselves from media and the result is disastrous.

For example India’s bold stand for the poor and destitute at WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement has not been communicated to the public. The bold stand of government should have won the admiration of even opponents. Why the govt failed to communicate? Perhaps Modi knows.....or his media adviser (Sorry forgot the fact that he doesn’t have one yet). Apart from some over enthusiastic followers on twitter, Modi needs to have real time journalists and communication experts who can help him communicate better. The government has been unable to get full mileage of its rescue of Keralite nurses from the war torn Iraq. This should not happen again.

Foreign front

Perhaps the only area where government rose to expectations is here. Modi’s initiatives at building better relations with SAARC countries and other Asian countries including China mark a remarkable shift from the attitude of lethargic UPA government. Hope Modi would maintain the tempo and help India emerge as a world leader.

Conclusion

BJP should not take by-poll results likely. Strategies that once helped to win may not be just enough to sustain the momentum. Keep reinventing. Communicate effectively. Make people feel the change. This is a great chance for Hindutva groups. Please don’t squander it.