Nairs and
Ezhavas, two major communities in Kerala formally decided to unite on issues
affecting both communities and work for a broader Hindu unity in Kerala in June
2012 after many previous aborted efforts. Political parties like CPI (M),
Congress and Muslim League have become wary after this new move and they have
openly expressed their uneasiness at this development. Clearly this means the
unity has the potential to change Kerala politics. But when is it going to
change Kerala politics and how? Moreover which party will benefit from this and
which party will lose?
Demographical significance of the
unity
Nairs and
Ezhavas together constitute around 35 per cent of the state population and nearly
80 per cent of Hindu population in Kerala. So even if a 10 per cent of total
membership of NSS and SNDP votes according to orders of NSS and SNDP leadership
it will swing election results in nearly 80 per cent of assembly constituencies
in the state. So definitely the unity has significance. Now Nairs and Ezhavas
are spread across the state which means election results of constituencies
where Congress, Kerala Congress (Mani) and CPI and CPI (M) are influential will
be altered. Such constituencies are in all districts of Kerala except
Malappuram. Winning chances of Muslim League in a large number of
constituencies won’t be affected as Muslims are mostly concentrated in a few
constituencies where they form more than 50 per cent of population. However
ML’s candidates from those constituencies where Muslims do not constitute that
majority will be affected.
In the
traditional voting pattern which was evident till early 90s majority of Nairs
in Central and South Kerala usually voted for Congress while lower classes
among Ezhavas used to support Left parties, especially CPM and CPI throughout
Kerala. The upper middle classes and upper classes among Ezhavas used to
support Congress mainly. In South Kerala, especially in Pathanamthitta and
Kottayam districts upper caste Christians and Nairs used to vote together and
Kerala Congress (Mani) group which is a Christian majority party used to
benefit. They used to some positions to their Nair leaders also including
minister post at times. In all the constituencies where Kerala Congress wins Ezhavas
also have significant population and if Nairs and Ezhavas unite and decide to
vote against Kerala Congress it will have little hope.
So it seems
all parties except Muslim League will be directly affected by Nair-Ezhava unity
if it really translates to unity in voting at least among a minority of both
communities.
How Congress, Kerala Congress (Mani)
and CPI and CPI (M) going to tackle new development
First option
for political parties will be to break the unity at state level or regional
levels. For this political parties may exploit weaknesses against NSS and SNDP
leadership either by offering the freebies or threatening them. There are many
allegations against leaderships of NSS and SNDP and some of them have even
cases against them in different issues. NSS and SNDP run many institutions and
including educational institutions and hospitals. They need active support of
authorities to run these hassle free. Threat of action against leadership may
work in certain conditions and will force some community leaders to make secret
support to individual leaders. Many local level leaders of NSS and SNDP are people
with diverse interests and are susceptible to influences.
Some of the
state level leaders of CPM and Congress have good individual relations with NSS
and SNDP leadership. They are bound to get support of these organizations on
individual basis even if Congress or CPM don’t get support.
BJP’s prospects and Nair-Ezhava unity
Though
Nair-Ezhava (NSS and SNDP) leaders speak of Hindu unity in Kerala it is
unlikely that Hindu unity will directly translate to victory of BJP. The reason
is BJP leaders in Kerala from Nair and Ezhava community do not command a large
support base in own communities which they can bring for BJP. In other words
BJP does not have many leaders with mass base here. They don’t bring votes to
party; they get only votes of those who are committed to Hindutva ideology.
However
Nair-Ezhava unity will indirectly create an atmosphere in Kerala for popularizing
Hindutva ideology and that will benefit BJP. The growing fear of extremism and
terrorism among Nairs and Ezhavas and growing influence of Muslim community
economically and socially in Kerala have created insecurity feeling among Nairs
and Ezhavas. This has already worked for the benefit of BJP and will deepen its
influence in future. Another factor is rapid social changes in Kerala and
affluence of minority is slowly making all Hindu castes forget their difference
and come together. So this will also work to the benefit of BJP.
Will Christians eventually support
Nair-Ezhava unity
Christian
leadership may have apprehensions about Nair-Ezhava unity in the initial stages
and they will wait to see how things will turn out. If they find that it has become a reality and
cannot be broken they are likely to side with the new combination.
Traditionally a significant section of upper caste Christians in Kerala are in
harmony with Hindus and if united Nair-Ezhava community is willing to
accommodate them, Christian leadership is likely to strike a harmony with them.
In several
local bodies in south and central kerala BJP has won with support of Kerala
Congress (Mani) and vice versa. This could happen in assembly and lok sabha
election also. Once as NDA candidate PC Thomas won from Muvattupuzha Lok Sabha
seat which has more than 30 per cent Christian votes. He defeated both UDF and
LDF candidates then. It means with the right candidate, BJP can bring about a
Hindu-Christian consolidation for its candidates at least in certain parts of
Kerala.
Eventual situation
Nair-Ezhava
unity will help Nair and Ezhava leaders in both Congress and CPM to win
election and claim their stakes in wake of increasing population of Muslims in
Kerala. However rise of credible leaders in BJP who can influence masses will
turn the tide and will pave way to rise of that party in Kerala.
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